The plan to implement the National Electricity Development Plan for the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050, has just been approved. Although it is considered a new step forward in the field of renewable energy, it is also hidden. Many unknowns are difficult to predict compared to previous times.
After nearly a year of waiting, on April 1, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha signed Decision 4/QD-TTg dated April 262, 1 of the Prime Minister approving the Plan for implementing the Development Plan. National electricity in the period 4 - 2024, vision to 2021 (Power Plan VIII). Many opinions evaluate this as a significant step of maturity in institutional planning thinking for electric energy development compared to Electricity Planning VII. However, there are still comments expressing concern.
Difficulty with solar power concentrate
Accordingly, only from now until 2030 (the first stage in the planning period), concentrated solar power will not be granted a development quota. At the same time, in the period after 2030 to 2050, this type of power source will have its room expanded if it is developed in the form of self-consumption and self-production on a non-legalized basis if there are violations of planning, land and regulations. other.
However, the issue of "self-production - self-consumption" has only arisen with rooftop solar power since the end of last year with many contents waiting for policy decisions on purchasing, mobilization, and connection mechanisms.
Specifically, Power Plan VIII determines the total power capacity of 150.489 MW (excluding exports, existing rooftop solar power, and renewable energy to produce new energy). Of which, the total installed capacity of solar power is 12.836 MW (excluding existing rooftop solar power), accounting for 8,5% of total source capacity, including 10.236 MW of concentrated solar power and 2.600 MW of solar power. The sun produces and consumes itself.
The content in the recently issued implementation plan of Power Plan VIII shows that the concept of "self-production - self-consumption" has been applied to concentrated solar power with a total capacity of about 4.140 MW of new development from 2030.
Regarding the existing large investors in this playground, it is noted that the case of Dau Tieng solar power in Tay Ninh with the largest capacity (more than 1 GW) deployed by Xuan Cau investor, or solar power KN Tri An floating sky in Dong Nai invested by KN Cam Ranh Group.
Besides concentrated solar power, there are also a number of transitional renewable energy power projects that are also in a situation where it is unclear how to handle them, when compared with the implementation plan of the national electricity planning.
Accordingly, by the end of last year, 81/85 transitional renewable energy projects with a total capacity of 4.597 MW had submitted documents to the Electricity Trading Company to negotiate electricity prices and electricity purchase contracts; Of which, 69 projects (total capacity of 3.927MW) have proposed temporary prices equal to 50% of the ceiling price of the price bracket.
Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) and the investor have completed price negotiations and initialed PPA contracts with 63/69 projects; The Ministry of Industry and Trade has approved temporary prices for 62 projects with a total capacity of 3.399,41 MW; There are 21 factories/factory sections with a total capacity of 1.201 MW that have completed COD procedures and can generate commercial electricity to the grid. In addition, about 40 projects have had their investment policies extended.
LNG gas power question mark
Holding a significant proportion in the structure of power sources serving the economy and society from now to 2030, is LNG thermal power. The implementation plan of Power Plan VIII specifically mentions the list of types of power sources that will operate in the period until 2030.
Typical domestic gas thermal power projects using gas from Blue Whale, Block B, Bao Vang fields such as: O Mon II, IV, Dung Quat I, II, III, O Mon III, gas turbines Central Region I, II vaporization, Quang Tri vaporization gas turbine.
Still about 6 years away from the target of operation, the list of 13 LNG thermal power projects recorded many new cases in the state of preparing feasibility reports such as Bac Lieu 3.200 MW, Son My II 2.250 MW, BOT Son My I 2.250 MW , Quang Ninh 1.500 MW, Hai Lang LNG phase 1 1.500 MW.
Some projects have not yet detailed the current status of ongoing work such as LNG Quang Trach II 1.500 MW in Quang Binh, LNG Quynh Lap 1.500 MW in Nghe An. Or three LNG projects with a capacity of 1.500 MW are still choosing investors: Thai Binh, Nghi Son and Ca Na.
In addition, in Quang Tri, Quang Tri Thermal Power Plant recently received T&T Group's proposal to convert to LNG. However, concretizing and completing a super project that has been going on for many years cannot happen overnight.
According to Power Plan VIII, the total installed capacity of power sources by 2030 is about 150,5 GW, nearly double the current total installed capacity. Of which, about 30.400 MW of gas power source capacity must be invested in new construction with 10 domestic gas projects and 13 LNG projects.
The plan sets a goal that by 2030, 13 LNG power projects will be completed, and in 2024, Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4 will be completed using LNG. However, currently the electricity and LNG purchase contracts have not been completed, so there is a risk that it will be difficult to put them into operation because the electricity consuming units have not made specific commitments.
Nhon Trach 3 and 4 have been invested in and completed but are at risk of not being able to operate on schedule. To date, the feasibility report of O Mon 3 and 4 thermal power plants has not been approved, so the possibility of putting them into trial operation in 2026 is still a question mark.
The development goal is very ambitious, but according to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Thap, Chairman of the Vietnam Petroleum Association, a few months ago, LNG gas power development is facing many difficulties that have not been thoroughly resolved. The basic bottlenecks of LNG gas power basically revolve around the legal corridor, policy mechanisms, commitments on consumption as well as lack of guarantees on transmission.
These are not new issues for many years, but have become hot due to the demand for green transformation, sustainable development as well as the commitment to reduce C02 emissions that are counting down to the implementation milestone.
The most obvious consequence is the risk of losing control over the progress of the chain of LNG gas power projects when there are only about 6 years left to reach the finish line, in order to contribute to ensuring energy security as required by the Government as well as the government. Ministry of Industry and Trade more than six months ago.
The article is taken from Nhan Dan newspaper: https://nhandan.vn/huong-toi-phat-trien-hai-hoa-nang-luong-tai-tao-post803789.html