The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emission Gap Report 2024 is an independent scientific assessment of the gap between current national commitments and the emissions needed to keep global temperature increases below 2°C, while aiming for a 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement. The report highlights the importance of voluntary national commitments to reduce emissions by 2035 to prevent severe climate change impacts.
Emissions to rise in 2023: Emissions gap continues to widen
2023 will see global greenhouse gas emissions reach a record 57,1 gigatons CO₂e, up 1,3% from the previous year. Of these, CO₂ from fossil fuels accounts for 68% of total emissions and is up 2% from 2022 due to increased energy demand in industry, metal and cement production. Other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) , and nitrous oxide (N₂O) also recorded increases, particularly from livestock, waste management and fossil fuel extraction. The main sources of emissions this year include "energy production, transportation, industry and agriculture"; these are areas that need urgent and far-reaching reduction efforts.
National commitment is not enough to achieve the target
Although many countries have updated their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), current commitments are still insufficient to meet the goal of limiting temperature increases to below 2°C. In particular, the G20 – which accounts for 77% of global emissions – has yet to meet its 2030 NDC targets. Some countries have even recorded increases in emissions, while only a few have made positive progress in reducing emissions. This further exacerbates the inequality in contributions and responsibilities between developed and developing countries in the fight against climate change.
2030 and 2035 Goals: Requires Decisive Action
Achieving the 1,5°C target would require emissions to fall by **42% in 2030 and 57% in 2035** compared to 2019 levels. This would be equivalent to a 7,5% emissions cut each year by 2035, significantly higher than current commitments. The report highlights the urgency of increasing investment in low-emission technologies such as solar and wind, which have the potential to meet 27% of the emissions reduction need in 2030 and 38% in 2035, making a significant contribution to achieving the climate target.
The G20's role in closing the emissions gap
The G20 has a particularly important role to play in reducing emissions faster than the global average. The report calls for international cooperation, including financial support and investment in developing countries, to ensure that emission reduction targets are implemented fairly and effectively. Developed G20 countries should increase financial and technical support to developing countries, helping them reduce emissions without sacrificing development opportunities.
The impact of delay and latency
The report points out that the delay in action since 2020 has increased the difficulty of meeting the goal of keeping global warming below 1,5°C. This delay not only reduces the effectiveness of emissions reduction measures, but also puts us closer to the severe impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather and biodiversity loss.
Recommendations for the next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
To close the emissions gap, the report recommends that countries increase ambition in their next NDC commitments, be more transparent about equity commitments, and provide clear implementation plans for their 2035 emissions reduction targets. These plans should not only state clear targets but also require specific roadmaps, with realistic and achievable measures.
- 2023 will see total global greenhouse gas emissions reach a record high of 57,1 gigatons CO₂e, up 1,3% from the previous year. Of these, fossil fuel CO₂ remains the largest source, accounting for 68% of total GHG emissions, with a 2% increase from 2022 due to increased energy demand from industry, metal production and cement production. At the same time, emissions from methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are expected to increase sharply, particularly in the livestock, waste management and fossil fuel sectors. The report points out that the energy production, transport, industry and agriculture sectors remain the main sources of emissions, requiring urgent and more extensive efforts to reduce emissions in the near future.
- The report also found that national emissions reduction commitments in the G20 have not been sufficient. Despite accounting for 20% of global emissions, G77 countries have not yet met their 2030 NDC targets. Some countries have even recorded increases in emissions, while only a few have made significant improvements in emissions reductions. The disparity in per capita and historical emissions between developed and developing countries continues to exacerbate inequality in contributions and responsibilities in combating climate change.
The Emission Gap Report 2024 highlights the urgency of action to keep global temperatures at safe levels. With emissions continuing to rise and the emissions gap widening, improved national commitments and increased G20 action will be crucial to reducing the risks of climate change.