According to Mr. Prachi Mehta, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, the race to electrify cars is accelerating. Competition among the leading electric car manufacturers is fierce, as 2024 is set to be the first year electric car battery prices will exceed the spending threshold.
Electric vehicles will dominate road transport by 2050, accounting for 56% of all vehicle sales that year. Our research shows that by 2050 there will be 875 million personal electric cars, 70 million commercial electric vehicles and 5 million fuel cell vehicles on the road, bringing the total number of zero-emission vehicles to 950. million by mid-century.
Additionally, by 2050 in China, Europe and the United States, more than 5 out of every 3 vehicles in operation will be electric. And with that, for every 2 commercial vehicles, approximately 1 will be an electric vehicle.
The expected growth in electric vehicle sales could be bad news for the combustion engine (ICE) vehicle market. Sales of these ICE vehicles, including hybrid/microcars, will fall to less than 20% of total global sales by 2050. Even though this market only totaled 18% of global vehicle sales that year .
Promote electrification
Net-zero emissions policies are changing the global landscape. Transportation is one of the main causes of increased emissions, but it is also the easiest problem to fix. Countries accounting for more than 0% of global car sales and automakers representing 50% of global sales have expressed a desire to go carbon neutral, and many countries have made specific plans to do that.
With new supply chains and dependencies, traditional OEMs (parts manufacturers) are innovating their business models. The stage seems set for a trucking overhaul, but OEMs have only made quick announcements about electric vehicles, it's a matter of how, when, where and who A new start is worth mentioning.
Leading fuel cell
The top five electric car manufacturers according to Wood Mackenzie – Tesla, Volkswagen, General Motors, Nissan-Renault and Hyundai – have committed to total annual sales of 8,9 million battery electric vehicles by 2030, or nearly 50% of global storage battery sales. These companies will reach 39% of the target – deviation from the above ratio due to Tesla's ambition to reach 20 million annual vehicle sales by 2030. If Tesla is not included, the remaining four manufacturers will reach 79% % of target sales in 2030.
Although Tesla is currently leading, with just over half a million electric vehicle models sold in 2020, competition from OEMs, especially Volkswagen, is heating up.
According to analysis by Wood Mackenzie, Volkswagen will surpass Tesla in the mid-2020s to become the leading electric car manufacturer, selling nearly 3 million electric vehicles per year by 2030. Tesla will lag nearly 1,5 year behind. .XNUMX million vehicles. Nissan-Renault and Hyundai will also surpass Tesla in annual sales by the end of the decade. General Motor's absence in Europe will be significant over the next decade and will make it the fifth leader in global electric vehicle sales.
Barriers on the path to success
A lack of charging infrastructure and high costs are cited as barriers to widespread use of electric vehicles. However, we see improvements in both areas. The expected price of storage batteries for electric vehicles continues to decrease. We expect to surpass $2/kWh in 100, a year earlier than previous forecasts.
Residential and public charging stations are expected to increase to 58 million points and 6 million points of sale, respectively, by 2030. The cumulative investment value of this area is expected to be 57 billion USD and 111 billion USD, respectively. 2020 billion USD in the period 2030-XNUMX.
Consumers also have a more accurate view of economic issues. While most people are motivated by climate concerns, the financial benefits of switching to “zero emissions” technology and battery storage are also a factor. The price level of the luxury sedan segment is already on par with ICE vehicles at the time of sale, which will help expand into niche markets well ahead of initial predictions – a change that will bring electric vehicle development to a real acceleration.
Future
The rapidly evolving transportation landscape is also shaping new strategies. As traditional automakers join the electric vehicle race, they are expanding their role from simply being automakers to investing in battery production and system infrastructure. electric charging system. Vertical integration will be key to reducing costs and ensuring raw material availability to support market growth.
See original article at: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/08/17/electric-vehicle-race-heats-up/