Energy Technologies Perspectives (Energy Technologies Perspectives)

Achieving the energy and climate goals we outline will require a significant expansion of clean energy technologies.

To avoid the worst consequences of climate change, the global energy system must rapidly reduce emissions. Every year there are increasing calls to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, but emissions remain at unsustainably high levels. The international climate target is for emissions to peak as soon as possible and then decline rapidly to reach net zero emissions in the second half of the century. The majority of global CO0 emissions come from the energy sector, so there is a need to be clear about a cleaner energy system. Global CO2 emissions are expected to decline in 2 due to the Covid-2020 crisis, but without structural changes to the energy system, this decline will be temporary .

Achieving net zero emissions requires a fundamental transformation in the way we source, convert and use energy. The rapid growth of wind power, solar power and electric cars has shown the potential of new clean energy technologies to reduce emissions. Net zero emissions will require these technologies to be deployed on a much larger scale, in parallel with the massive development and deployment of many other clean energy solutions currently in development, e.g. like hydrogen and carbon capture. The IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario, a roadmap to meet international climate and energy goals, would take the global energy system to net zero emissions by 0, combines aspects of behavioral change along with profound transformations in energy system technology and infrastructure.

This report analyzes more than 800 technology options to examine what it will take for the world to achieve net zero emissions by 0. The report focuses primarily on the Sustainable Development Scenario, which includes a Fast Innovation Case that shows the impact of technology on achieving growth. net zero emissions globally by 0. This analysis will assess the challenges and opportunities associated with the rapid transition to clean energy. The report covers all sectors of the energy system, from fuel conversion and electricity generation to aviation and steel production.

Transforming the power sector alone will only get the world one-third of the way to net-zero emissions.

Many governments have ambitious plans to reduce emissions from the energy sector. Some governments have even put net zero emissions ambitions into law or proposed legislation, while others are discussing their own strategies for achieving net zero emissions. Many companies have also announced carbon-neutral goals. The success of renewable energy technology gives governments and businesses some reason for optimism. However, achieving these targets will require paying much more attention to the transport, industry and housing construction sectors, which today account for more than 0% of CO0 emissions. from the energy system.

The widespread use of electricity across many sectors of the economy is a key contributor to achieving net zero emissions. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electricity demand eventually more than doubles. This growth is driven by the use of electricity in cars, buses and trucks; to produce recycled metals and provide industrial heat; and provide the energy needed for heating, cooking and other equipment in buildings.

Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 will require faster deployment of low-carbon electricity generation. In the Rapid Innovation Case, electricity generation in 2050 would be about 2,5 times higher than today, requiring a growth rate equivalent to adding the entire U.S. electricity sector every three years. time. Meanwhile, annual renewable power capacity additions were about four times the current record in 2019.

Electricity alone cannot decarbonize the entire economy

Hydrogen will expand electricity access. In addition to rising demand for electricity from across different sectors of the economy, there is a need for large amounts of additional power generation products for low-carbon hydrogen. The global capacity of electrolysers, which produce hydrogen from water and electricity, will increase from 0,2 GW today to 3 300 GW in the Sustainable Development Scenario. To produce the low-carbon hydrogen needed to reach net-zero emissions, these electrolyzers will consume twice as much electricity as the People's Republic of China generates today. This hydrogen forms a bridge between the power sector and industries where direct use of electricity would be challenging, such as in making steel from iron ore or fueling large ships.

Carbon capture and bioenergy play multifaceted roles. Capturing CO2 emissions for sustainable use or storage (CCUS) is an important technology to achieve net zero emissions. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, CCUS is used in the production of low-carbon synthetic fuels and removes CO0 from the atmosphere. CCUS is also important for the production of some low-carbon hydrogen to achieve net zero emissions, mainly in regions with low-cost natural gas and CO2 storage. At the same time, the use of modern bioenergy has tripled compared to today's levels. Bioenergy is used to directly replace fossil fuels (e.g. biofuels for transport) or to offset indirect emissions through its use in combination with CCUS.

A secure and sustainable energy system with net zero emissions will enable a new generation of fuels. The security of today's global energy system is largely guaranteed by three main fuels: coal, oil and natural gas, which account for about 70% of global final energy demand. Electricity, hydrogen, synthetic fuels and bioenergy end up accounting for a similar share of demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario as fossil fuels today.

The clean energy technologies we will need tomorrow will depend on today's innovations

A rapid transition to net zero emissions will depend on faster innovation in electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and CCUS. Just over a third of the emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario come from technologies that are not currently commercialized. In the Case of Rapid Innovation, the share of these technologies increases by another half. Thirty-five percent of decarbonization in the Rapid Innovation Case comes from electrification, with about 25% coming from CCUS, about 20% from bioenergy and about 5% from hydrogen.

Long-distance transportation and heavy industry are the sectors with the hardest emissions to reduce. Energy savings, material savings and avoided transport needs (e.g. replacing personal car travel with walking or cycling) all play an important role in reducing emissions in long-distance transport and heavy industries. But nearly 60% of the emissions reductions in these sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario come from technologies that are currently only at the demonstration and prototype stage. Hydrogen and CCUS account for about half of the emissions reductions in the steel, cement and chemical industries. In the road transport, maritime transport and aviation sectors, the use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen, synthetic fuels and biofuels will range from 55% to 80%. As the global market becomes highly competitive, the longevity of existing infrastructure and rapidly growing demand in certain sectors further complicate efforts to reduce emissions in these sectors. this challenging area. Fortunately, the technical skills and knowledge that these fields possess today are a great starting point for commercializing the technologies needed to solve these challenges.

Emissions from existing infrastructure are a major challenge

Energy and heavy industry account for about 60% of today's emissions from existing energy infrastructure, rising to nearly 100% by 2050 if no action is taken. Achieving net zero will depend on how we manage emissions from the long-term infrastructure of these sectors, many of which have been built recently in Asian economies and can operate for decades to come. This situation highlights the need for hydrogen and CCUS technologies. Ensuring that new clean energy technologies are timely for key investment decisions is critical. For example, in heavy industries, strategic timed investments could help avoid around 0% of cumulative emissions from existing infrastructure in these sectors.

Governments will need to play a decisive role

While markets are important for mobilizing capital and driving innovation, they will not achieve net zero emissions on their own. Governments have a greater role to play in supporting the transition towards net zero emissions. The long-term vision needs to be supported by detailed clean energy strategies involving appropriate measures. suitable to the infrastructure and technology needs of each locality. An effective policy toolkit must address five core areas:

• Treat emissions from existing infrastructure
• Strengthen the market for technologies at the early stages of adoption.
• Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment.
• Increased support for research, development and demonstration.
• Expand international technology cooperation.

Economic stimulus measures in response to the Covid-19 crisis provide a vital opportunity to take urgent action to boost the economy while supporting clean energy and climate goals, includes all five areas above.