1. The withdrawal can only take effect from 2026?
President Trump’s decisions and actions are always accompanied by many legal controversies. The Executive Order withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, signed immediately after his inauguration, is no exception.
The order states that the United States will withdraw from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change immediately upon notification to the United Nations. All previous climate finance commitments of the US Government will also be immediately canceled.
However, Article 28.2 of the Paris Agreement provides for withdrawal from the agreement stating that “The withdrawal shall take effect one year after the date of receipt of notification of withdrawal by the Secretary-General of the United Nations…”
President Trump's executive order was signed on January 20, 01. Thus, with the provisions of Article 2025 above, the US withdrawal will only take effect after January 28.2, 20 at the earliest. This means that the US's financial support commitments and other obligations from the Paris Agreement must remain in place until 01.
This is not the first time that President Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Previously, in 2019, President Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. However, during the legal proceedings, he lost the 2020 election. And then President Biden announced that the United States would return to the Paris Agreement.
There is also another view that the State Department and the US Ambassador to the UN will argue that the withdrawal notice was sent to the UN Secretary General in 2019, so the one-year notice period has been satisfied. But the final conclusion will have to wait for the negotiation process between the US and the UN in the coming time.
2. Many US states will continue to participate in the Paris Agreement
With the US federal political system, state governments have a certain independence from the federal government in management. Therefore, although the federal government of President Trump decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the Democratic states are still committed to pursuing the United Nations' climate goals.
In response to President Trump's first-term withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, US Climate Alliance was established in 2017, including the participation of governors of 24 states, representing nearly 60% of the economy and 55% of the population of the United States.
On January 20, Governor Kathy Hochul of New York and Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico — co-chairs of the US Climate Alliance — sent a letter to the United Nations and informed them that they will continue to pursue climate commitments and goals.
The coalition is committed to protecting gains and sustaining and advancing climate action not only in its 24 states but across the United States.
Therefore, the trend of green and sustainable development may slow down during President Trump's term, but this will still be an irreversible trend in the future.